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Let me start off this week by saying I love baseball. I’ve been in my fantasy baseball league for 13 years now and it’s great. It can be annoying setting your line up every day now that I have kids, a wife and other obligations but it’s still fun. My career as a fantasy baseball manager started much like my career in real estate except it left me saying “who the hell is this?” My very first draft pick ever in this league was Delmon Young. At the time he was a 25 year old outfielder who looked like he was destined to be a star. I couldn’t believe he was available in our expansion draft. I got him and thought I was going to win a championship soon. Fast forward to the end of the year and he was worse than league average, but I still believed so I kept him on the roster for next year. The following season he was even worse and so I dropped him. Fast forward 11 more years and I still haven’t won a championship but it’s still fun. I love looking at the stats and trying to predict the future and you can apply some of that to real estate so I’m going to attempt to now.
The first stat that I will be using is average sale price. This is pretty self explanatory. If the average sale price in your town is going up, then it’s good for homeowners and not so good for buyers. The second stat I will be using is how many homes are currently for sale. This number moves every month and relates to the supply in the supply and demand equation. Next, I will look at the months supply. This is a correlation of how many houses are for sale and how fast people are buying them. Easy way to think about it is; If no more houses came up for sale how long would it take for all of them to be bought. Then we will take a look at how many new listings are available which give us and idea of your competition if you were wanting to sell your home. Also, can help buyers determine their leverage in the market as well. Finally, we will look at how many showing on the average it takes to get your house sold. This is actually a pretty important stat because it can tell you a lot of things. If you are getting way more showings than the average it could mean that you’ve priced your property too low and if you aren’t getting the average, then it could mean that you priced it too high. This could be because of pricing, or you haven’t conveyed the value of the property properly in the listing. Either way it’s a good indicator that something is wrong if you’re listing is falling into the average.
Let’s start with Kankakee. In Kankakee the average sale price has dropped 4% in the last month from $131450 to $126500. There are 9% more homes for sale at the moment from 55-60 and subsequently the months supply has gone from 1.8 to 2. This month saw a total of 42 new listing brought to market and showing have also went up from 11-12. This to me would suggest it’s a seller’s market still.
Next, we will look at Bradley. The average sales price in Bradley has gone up from $190,000 to $195500 which is +2.8%. Homes for sale is down from 8 to 7 and there were 11 new listings added to the marketplace in February. The months supply is down from 2.1-1.8 and average showings is up 2.6-6.6. This would suggest to me that it’s also a seller’s market in Bradley.
Finally, I will look at Bourbonnais. The average sales price for the month of February went from $253000-$310000 which is up 22%. The total number of homes for sale is down 14% from 41-35 and the months supply is also down from 2.1-1.8. There were 18 new listings added to the market in February and the average showings is also up from 2.6-6.6. This would also suggest that Bourbonnais is a seller’s market.
Now, how do we apply these stats to your future transaction? Well, if you are a buyer, you can use these stats to help you make an offer. If a property isn’t getting any showing and is way above the average sales price without a good reason for being so then you know that you probably shouldn’t pay that much. If you are a seller, you can use these stats to determine a price and watch your position in the market to ensure that you get the price you want in a timely manor. Either way I hope this helps someone who is debating on what to do. Even if that decision is to wait, I hope this helps. If you’d like to meet me and talk about your goals, please feel free to do so. I promise I won’t go Delmon Young on you and make you regret it.
